Geoff Kendrick, the Head of FX Research at Standard Chartered, envisions a striking ascent for Bitcoin, projecting a potential value of $200,000 by the end of 2025. This optimistic outlook is closely tied to the anticipated approval of bitcoin spot ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The introduction of bitcoin spot ETFs is expected to catalyze a surge in demand, reminiscent of the impact witnessed in the gold market following the launch of the first gold spot ETFs. Kendrick draws parallels to the SPDR Gold Shares, which saw a significant value increase over a seven-year period post-launch.
Kendrick’s analysis suggests that inflows into bitcoin could reach between $50 billion and $100 billion this year alone. He anticipates that between 437,000 and 1.32 million new bitcoins could be held in U.S. spot ETFs by the end of 2024. Furthermore, the bitcoin market is expected to mature more rapidly than the gold ETF market, potentially leading to a quicker price increase.
Another factor contributing to the price forecast is the upcoming bitcoin halving cycle, which typically reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created, thereby limiting supply. Additionally, there is a noted decrease in the immediately available supply of bitcoin, making it more price inelastic.
Comparing the potential impact of bitcoin spot ETFs to the historical precedent set by gold ETFs, Kendrick underscores the transformative effect such financial products can have on a market. He also notes the increase in bitcoin’s price in 2020, correlating with a rise in holdings in non-U.S. ETFs.
The crypto community and investors are keenly observing the SEC’s decision, which could set a new course for Bitcoin’s market trajectory.