Bitcoin is a digital currency that undergoes a process of halving every four years. Once a halving event occurs, the reward for mining a new BTC drops by 50%.
Four years ago, the market responded positively to this occurrence, and Bitcoin gained significant value. That’s the expected reaction, considering that halving affirms BTC’s value and adds to its scarcity. Investors are often active and buy Bitcoin with credit card around this event to capitalize on price growth.
The latest BTC halving occurred on April 19, 2024. What can we expect in the following days, months, or years?
Key Moments During This Halving
First, let’s check out the key facts and then analyze the halving:
- Bitcoin halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, so the event happens approximately every four years.
- Halving has the goal of restricting BTC’s supply and decreasing the rate at which the new coins are mined.
- Bitcoin has a max supply of 21 million coins. The estimation is that the last halving will occur in 2140.
- The latest halving occurred on April 19th, 2024.
- After the halving, the reward for mining a new Bitcoin dropped to 3,125 BTC from 6,250 BTC.
- It was the fourth BTC halving from the currency’s release.
The halving block was the 840,000th on the blockchain. The fee for mining it was over $2.6 million, which was about 6 times more than the $450K prize for several blocks before that. At this point, nobody explained why this happened. An assumption is that investors around the world have paid more to ensure their transfer is among those in the special block.
Market Performance Before and After Bitcoin Halving
If we analyze the BTC price a few months before the halving, we’ll see that the coin was worth $51,669 on February 22nd, 2024. It was an exciting week for Bitcoin since it went over the $62,000 mark by the end of the month.
After a few days of stabilization, the value kept increasing. Bitcoin reached its all-time high on March 14, 2024. It was $73,750 at that point. BTC had major fluctuations during March, so it didn’t keep that value for long. It dropped to under $62,000 but bounced back to $69,641 on March 31st, 2024.
BTC’s value on the day of halving was approximately $63,000. A minor spike occurred in the following three days, leading the coin’s worth to over $66,000. Then it went as low as $58,568 on May 1st, which was surprising. After a week or two of considerable fluctuations, BTC regained its value.
Bitcoin was worth $70,610 on May 21st, 2024. It remains to be seen whether the currency can set a new all-time high in the coming months. According to the 2024 market forecast, we can be moderately optimistic about BTC.
Predictions for the Future
Some factors speak in favor of both bearish and bullish times for Bitcoin. Many experts are confused because BTC usually achieves a new all-time high after the halving. This time, it occurred before the event.
According to the specialists from JPMorgan, the expected price changes regarding the halving process were already factored in before the event. That’s why it’s hard to expect that halving will have a huge impact on BTC’s worth.
As for the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin, the experts are optimistic. That’s also not because of the halving but the general market conditions. Goldman’s analysts believe that the main factor affecting the price performance will be the increased demand for Bitcoin ETFs, which have been approved this year.
There’s also the overall supply-demand dynamic. The halving event affects it in the long run since the reduction in mining prizes means that BTC scarcity is higher than before. Experts believe this won’t affect Bitcoin as much in the short run as it will in the long run. The next halving event is in four years. As we get closer to it, we might see BTC gaining more value due to the increased demand to gain crypto before the rewards drop by 50% again. That makes Bitcoin an attractive long-term investment if that option is in your portfolio.
Why Bitcoin Should Have a Bullish Market in 2024 and Beyond
Halving is among the reasons why Bitcoin could have a positive impact in 2024. Miners suffer the biggest hit with each halving event since their prizes decrease, and they need to optimize mining rigs. But if we look at Bitcoin price-wise, the increased coin’s scarcity should lead to a jump in value.
Despite that, experts are unanimous that the crypto ETF’s acceptance is the main factor in Bitcoin’s price increase in 2024. An exchange-traded fund (ETF) opens the crypto market to investors otherwise focused on stocks.
The ETF concept classifies the investment as a stock, so this approval can mean significant income flow into the crypto market. And if we consider Bitcoin’s reputation, it’s clear why BTC stands to profit the most from that.
Why Bitcoin Should Have a Bearish Market in 2024 and Beyond
Although ETFs make cryptos more open to investors, many are still afraid of regulatory issues. The unregulated environment at a global level affects investor mood negatively. Many lawsuits, such as the famous Ripple vs SEC case, aren’t a positive sign for potential crypto investors.
Market volatility is another issue that some investors don’t appreciate. Additionally, some traders dislike scalability and environmental sustainability issues, and that could damage BTC and crypto reputation in the future.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is the leader of the crypto industry. It’s been the most valuable asset for over a decade, and that won’t change. BTC actually competes with itself, which is the main consideration when analyzing its post-halving position.
The currency already reached a new ATH in 2024, and many believe the threshold will be crossed at least once again this year. Halving might not have had the expected impact, but the adoption of crypto ETFs should drive the industry’s worth higher. The new inflow will take the overall market forward, which is the reason to believe that Bitcoin is set for an exciting future, too.