PARIS, Dec. 18, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Denis Mensilah, Senior Market Strategist at MGIExchange, has released the company’s latest seasonal outlook, focusing on one of the most anticipated year-end market phenomena: the Santa Rally. Historically, December is associated with heightened market optimism and increased trading activity, prompting investors to consider whether this year will follow traditional patterns or diverge due to evolving conditions.
According to Mensilah, the Santa Rally remains one of the most widely analyzed short-term market trends, typically occurring during the last week of December and the opening trading days of January. Although not guaranteed, the pattern is supported by decades of historical data, influenced by factors such as lighter institutional activity, portfolio adjustments, and positive year-end sentiment.
“This period consistently draws the attention of market participants,” Mensilah explains. “The key consideration each year is not the existence of the Santa Rally itself, but whether the current market environment provides the momentum necessary for it to develop.”
MGIExchange research team identifies several factors that could shape the outcome this year, including liquidity movements, institutional rebalancing, risk-on positioning, and macroeconomic trends heading into the new year. The firm notes that modern market dynamics — including algorithmic strategies, automation, and real-time data analysis — have modified how seasonal effects may materialize.
Mensilah highlights that MGIExchange’s proprietary analytics tools are actively monitoring subtle market shifts that historically precede the Santa Rally. These systems evaluate historical patterns, intraday sentiment, and cross-market trends to detect potential alignment with previous rallies.
“Traditional theories remain relevant, but today’s market demands a more technology-driven approach,” Mensilah states. “Our models use high-frequency data to compare current conditions with past environments, allowing us to gauge the probability of a Santa Rally occurring this year.”
MGIExchange emphasizes that while seasonal trends can offer valuable guidance, they are not guarantees. Unforeseen macroeconomic changes, geopolitical developments, or shifts in institutional positioning could influence outcomes. Early-December sentiment, however, appears constructive and aligns with historical indicators associated with the Santa Rally.
“Our outlook is cautiously optimistic,” Mensilah concludes. “Market patterns evolve, yet the underlying drivers for year-end momentum remain relevant. We will continue to monitor developments and provide updates as new information emerges throughout December.”
For more information, visit: https://www.mgiexchange.com
Contact Name: Raphaël Thomas
Email id: PR@mgiexchange.com
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